Sunday, February 29, 2004

Six Degrees of separation: I know this was a big fad for a while, but I sometimes find myself pondering on the idea that there's six degrees separating you from anybody else in the world.

People started out playing it as a stupid game with Kevin Bacon. Then they realized it was possible to do it with any two actors you wanted.

The second is a lot of fun. Buster Keaton to Hulk Hogan? Gary Cooper to Gary Coleman? Margret DuMont to Margot Kidder? Rudolph Valentino to Britney Spears?

Hollywood really is a small town, and most connections don't require using more than two other actors.

But what about you and me? Is there anything to the idea, that you, the random blogger who's surfed in from Australia or France or any of the places I've gotten hits from, you, who have typed something in a search engine and ended up here, could connect yourself to me using less people than I have siblings in my own family?

The argument for the "yes" faction goes something like this:

Behold the power of mathematics, of exponential increases.

Let's say I know 100 people. That's a pretty conservative estimate--my wife was from a tiny little town in Pennsylvania, and her graduating class 142 people, who she knew every one of.

And then, let's say that each of those people knows 50 non-redundant people. In other words, 50 people who I haven't included in the 100 that I know, and that aren't included in the 50 the other people know.

100 x 50 = 5000 people

If each of them know 50 more non-redundant people,

50 x 5000 = 2,500,000 people. (Her county only has 120,000 people)

50 x 2,500,000 = 125,000,000 (The whole population of PA is 13,000,000)

50 x 125,000,000 = 6,250,000,000 (The population of the world is about 9 billion)

50 x 6,250,000,000 = 31,250,000,000 (Over 31 billion)

So, statistically speaking, after six degrees you should know the world more than three times over.

Sound pretty good? Make your jaw drop a little? Wish your 401k had that kind of return?

Well, here's the case for the "No" vote:

Although the initial estimates are quite conservative, the rapid increase in "known" people is a little too rapid. It makes the non-redundancy requirement difficult. Once you hit, say, the 125 million mark, wouldn't it be a little difficult to have every single one of them come up with a list of 50 people who aren't already on the list?

The entire state of California only has 35 million people, and it's the most populous state in the union.

Being the cynic that I am, I'm inclined to believe the "No" folks. I mean, yeah, I know 50 people you don't know, from my time in Brazil. But I met a woman in Quinari, Acre who hadn't been off her own street in six years. I don't know if she knew anybody who neighbors didn't.

But I guess I know her, don't I? And that takes her one degree closer to a bunch of people here in the United States, who she wouldn't ever dream of knowing.

And all of you who know me one step closer to her and the wonderful community she's a part of.

And maybe that's why this just might work, after all. Because all of us are full of little surprises, all of us serve as bridges between one group and another, one community and another, people who ordinarily wouldn't interact, but who our existences link together.

No comments: